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Eisman of `Big Short' Says He's Long GM, Short Tesla


  • Am Vor 3 Monate

    Bloomberg Markets and FinanceBloomberg Markets and Finance

    Dauer: 4:37

    Jul.27 -- Steven Eisman, managing director at Neuberger Berman, discusses General Motors Co.'s potential for a "big home run" and his reasons for shorting Tesla Inc. because of the automaker’s negative cashflow. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

    Bloomberg  

3deaster
3deaster

3 months later I’m here curious if this is horse 🐎💩

Vor 2 Tage
mehfoos
mehfoos

Sam will always be successful overall. Tesla is a statistical outlier, so he will likely be wrong on this, but he's right about GM.

Vor 3 Tage
Realistic Man
Realistic Man

Since July this year, GM is down more than 20%. Tesla is up a bit. This guy Eisman got the whole thing backward!! Is he a friend of Dave Einhorn?

Vor 15 Tage
Ivan M
Ivan M

Long GM short Tesla. How can i invest into your fund?

Vor 19 Tage
00Raheem00
00Raheem00

Tesla longs: Please explain why the CFO, Chief Accounting Officer, Chief Autopilot Engineer, Director of Sales, and many others have left their company if presumably Tesla was on track for huge growth and profitability?

Vor 29 Tage
August Eighty
August Eighty

Just to correct - CFO is still the same - Ahuja hasn't left. Also - executive departures shouldn't inform your entire view of a company. This executive exodus is just the latest scare tactic about the company, in an attempt to use isolated issues to cast a wide net over the whole company. It is terrible investment analysis, proven both by the 3rd quarter results, continued explosion of growth, current stock price...and especially proven by the dwindling portfolio of anyone who is shorting this company. I also notice your comment was from 3 weeks ago - why were you even trying to talk about growth / profitability within days of them releasing Q3 results. What is wrong with you? lol.

Vor 3 Tage
Jay Baluga
Jay Baluga

This crook thinks tesla build their car off tent. Gtfo! You deserve to perish like the dinosaurs if you think that way! You stupid dirt bag!

Vor Monat
Phoenix love
Phoenix love

Lol what an idiot

Vor Monat
Niklas von der Warth
Niklas von der Warth

short on tesla ok but long on GM?

Vor Monat
Emmanuel Reyes
Emmanuel Reyes

Tesla is 80% levered, running out of room . . . I'm thinking they will be heading for additional capital in 2019 http://blueequity.io/#/reports/2375/TSLA

Vor Monat
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich Hayek

gm is a government dick SUCKER

Vor Monat
Richard Lumley Smith
Richard Lumley Smith

GM used bailout money after last crash to invest in electric car factories in China - hence why he backs GM!

Vor Monat
ersan bilik
ersan bilik

eisman knows shit about autonomous driving... nvidia will dominate autonomous driving and will save tesla's ass ;)

Vor 2 Monate
R
R

Man, this comment section is so stupid. I hope the millennials (sadly including me) won't be a lost dreamer generation in 30-40 years.

Vor 2 Monate
Karl Joda
Karl Joda

OMG ! What a BS ! General Motors ! LoL they are already dead no future ! AD ! - TESLA is far ahead ! most data in market.. To listen to this BS is making an ear cancer brake out😂😂😂

Vor 3 Monate
rob rose
rob rose

This guy looks like he gets punched in the nose a lot? How much do you think Exxon pays?

Vor 3 Monate
Simon van der Worp
Simon van der Worp

The reason Tesla is dominating the electric car market is because it simply is not profitable. Do you really think car companies are incapable of producing an electric car?? An electric car is a battery and an electric motor, thats it. No! No! but they invested soooo much money you see! In what? The gigafactory? To produce Panasonic batteries? A single advancement in battery tech would make the whole thing obsolete. And let's talk about innovation, the Model S is on the market for 6 years now, how much better did it get? Where is this innovation? The autopilot! The amazing self-driving system that does not have radar or lidar and should be banned for use on public roads. Once electric cars become a viable income source, every manufacturer will get into the market, Tesla will not have a chance.

Vor 3 Monate
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich Hayek

Look cheese head this sentence shows me what a fucking retard you are. " A single advancement in battery tech would make the whole thing obsolete. " LOL

Vor Monat
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich Hayek

cheese head, you are sooooooooooooooooo dumb, you have no clue how complicated it is to make high capacity, low price batteries in big quantities . SO EXPLAIN THIS ADVANCEMENT IN BATTERY TECH which would make the gigafactory obsolete.

Vor Monat
Simon van der Worp
Simon van der Worp

+Friedrich Hayek and you dont need to be a chemical engineer to understand that the Gigafactory is huge liability for Tesla, due to the risk of it simply becoming obsolete if a competitor would manage to bring out a more advanced battery

Vor Monat
Simon van der Worp
Simon van der Worp

+Friedrich Hayek anyone can be a chemical engineer and you are probably not one of the smart ones if you dont understand how a battery works douge

Vor Monat
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich Hayek

oh sorry, you are a cheese head, didnt see that right away

Vor Monat
kvaka009
kvaka009

"He's nowhere in autonomous driving"????? My brother in law has a model S with drive assist in the garage right now. It keeps speed, stays in lane on two way roads, changes lanes, and anticipates accidents. All the hardware for full autonomy is already in it. Tesla just announced they are making their own CPU chip and the software update for merging and exiting onto highways is coming out in the next few months. Sorry Steve, loved you in the big short, but you're off on this one big time.

Vor 3 Monate
ytzmark
ytzmark

This interview didn’t age well

Vor 3 Monate
Phong Nguyen
Phong Nguyen

He got shorted out last week.

Vor 3 Monate
James Baxter
James Baxter

How to lose your money 101

Vor 3 Monate
IXLAZYMANXI
IXLAZYMANXI

Hahaha they give it all the short then lose billions every quarter, whos really incompetent here?

Vor 3 Monate
Wesley Crabajales
Wesley Crabajales

Where is your money now?

Vor 3 Monate
Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla

future bets are on battery...GM doesn't even have a battery technology, they're dependent on Samsung or LG.

Vor 3 Monate
Frenchy Alicea
Frenchy Alicea

That dude cant even keep a phrase regarding his perspective going because theres NOOO justification for GM! And automation..im sorry but Tesla and google would be my perspective...NOT GM!!

Vor 3 Monate
Chris R
Chris R

Tesla shorts keep moving the goal posts. It’s hilarious! Keep shorting and I’ll keep taking your money 😂

Vor 3 Monate
Vince C
Vince C

Well this didn’t age well

Vor 3 Monate
Trust Him
Trust Him

Idk what he smoked. FDA should look into it. GM is leading autonomous driving??? You're delusional. Telsa has fleet of cars on the road improving their autonomous driving where are GM autonomous driving cars??

Vor 3 Monate
DIOSpeedDemon
DIOSpeedDemon

I know Elon very well, but he does not know me. Our favorite band is Die Antwoord. Even though Elon is a Kitchen Dutch. You idiots did not listen When Elon told you the future. Now listen up Fools. Elon Musk said in august 2018, short sellers would get hammered. He said it matter of fact because he knew this would happen 100%. That has happened as he predicted. The question is why did the stock raise 50$ a share overnite? Elon told you idiots weeks ago and still you are all Blind Homers. The Capital Markets in the US are closed to Tesla, that is why he wanted a 2500$ non refundable deposit on his future cars. American Capital markets are flush with money and HUGE. Foreign Capital Markets in some countries , dwarf our money by a hundred-fold. You with me so far? Good. Elon plans to build a plant in China. He said so. He also said he would have control of the plant being a foreigner. Sure thing, like all other foreign plants in China. Non US investment firms like 10 cents and Ali Baba are poised to invest a fortune in Tesla and his new plant- IN CHINA. When CHina gets the plant and gets all the Intellectual Property and electric motor secrets from Tesla- Guess who is going to control all this? You do the math. The stock rose 50 dollars a share on Capital Investment in the Stock, NOT on any rosy profits Tesla preports WILL happen in the Vapor-Ware Fisker future, but because his company is going to Shanghai, like he said. Tesla moves to China , shuts down US production and we the Taxpayer are out 5 Billion in Taxpayer money and Shanghai gets to control all the electric car market with no US over sight. You beginning to see the pictures, you Morons? Good. Meanwhile, Elon will have his golden electric parachute and ride off into the rosy future on his vapor-ware electric magic carpet. THAT is what I would do, anyway. Short sellers , whatever that is, I don't own or buy stock, too poor for that, Got Wasted over Stock investment by foreign interests. Too bad for them. I am concerned about taxpayer money. IF Tesla used the free market and no government money, I will not care a whit or write one sentence on how pissed I am. I wish him the best of Luck as a friend, but you cult like followers are going to be Dissapointed in the future when everything implodes in the US for this company. Tesla has been viable for 14 years and not one year of Profit? That is just fact and cannot be sustained in my humble opinion. Now you know the Truth, the Future and Don't Whine when all my predictions happen in the near future. Amen. Show less

Vor 3 Monate
1wdvg fgryb
1wdvg fgryb

Hahahahahayahahahaha boy just got rekt

Vor 3 Monate
Carlos A.
Carlos A.

This is really funny to watch after 1 August. I wonder if he still feels the same after taking so many loses to a company he claims not to see a value in.

Vor 3 Monate
Jonathan Root
Jonathan Root

Lol here's some short shorts 👖

Vor 3 Monate
Hernan Soulages
Hernan Soulages

This didn't age well.

Vor 3 Monate
ruirodtube
ruirodtube

Long GM and short Tesla is like long Yahoo! and short Google 20 years ago (approx) 😂 If I was part of his fund I’d be getting my money out. I mean, he doesn’t see Tesla in the autonomous driving business!? They basically invented it and are 5 years ahead.

Vor 3 Monate
findtom1
findtom1

ruirodtube this is what everyone fails to see. All the big competition on the way for Tesla is literally the entire auto industry chasing Tesla as Tesla leads the way. Innovation goes a long way in today’s world, so does brand. GM will never have the brand cachet that Tesla does, just like Samsung will never have the brand Apple does. It’s tremendously valuable.

Vor 3 Monate
Scott Morton
Scott Morton

I wonder if he expected his mere presence on the short side to crush the company

Vor 3 Monate
Billy Smith
Billy Smith

Long GM but is short Tesla.. wtf man, give me what your smoking. GM doesn’t have a competitive ev, no the bolt isn’t because Tesla outsells them 6:1, GM has no charging infrastructure even if they had a decent ev, they have very few cars running any autopilot software, as Tesla has 10’s of thousands of cars running around collecting data each day. Where will GM get all of their batteries from? Where do they charge their cars? Where will they build all of these “Tesla killers”? Sorry, GM is one of the last car companies that get me hard. I still have my doubts that they believe the vehicle industry is in an EV transition.

Vor 3 Monate
Thai Huynh
Thai Huynh

Who is here to check how REKT Eisman is?

Vor 3 Monate
DrgnFlys
DrgnFlys

What a dipshit! Tesla currently has 420K pre orders for the model 3, how many pre orders do all the other auto manufacturers in the world have combined? Probably less than 10k combined for all others.... Teslas pumped out 7k cars in one week last I checked, and this is a brand new factory, with the usual gremlins.

Vor 3 Monate
Andreas Lüdke
Andreas Lüdke

Is he drunk or stoned or brain dead ?

Vor 3 Monate
Chung Lee
Chung Lee

Are you crying alone now

Vor 3 Monate
Mathijs Frenken
Mathijs Frenken

4:17 "tesla has lost an enormous amount of executives over the past few years", the average time an executive is at tesla is 4.6 years. Industry average is 5.2 or something...

Vor 3 Monate
Joey Gee
Joey Gee

He said nothing insightful about Tesla. 'They're a big mystery'. If they're so hard to figure out then what's the point in having a position? Do more reseach then they won't be such a mystery. Duh..

Vor 3 Monate
Ufo Trailers
Ufo Trailers

These clowns remind me of Jr. High nothing but shit talkers... the only valuable thing was getting your hands on a set of TITS, you can only get your hands on a Tesla! I ❤️🔋🚙

Vor 3 Monate
Robert Blackford
Robert Blackford

Maybe Elon Musk will settle the issue by accusing him of being a pedophile. That seems to be Elon's M.O.

Vor 3 Monate
Frank Speaking
Frank Speaking

That was inappropriate, however the dude made false accusations and made a crude and insulting comment re Elon on TV, the 60 odd year old single dude has been living in Thailand for years and that country has a reputation for sex tourism and that type of activity by people such as that dude, however having said that Thailand has excellent and cheap medical facilities, and cheap living so there are a lot of foreigners retiring there without involvement in the seamy side.

Vor 2 Monate
Nick Eckemoff
Nick Eckemoff

All the Tesla nuts please stand please stand up.

Vor 3 Monate
shaun frendo
shaun frendo

what a lovely outfit george! I like the penguin look from gotham. very becoming! bowtie is a nice touch!

Vor 3 Monate
Grayson Youngman
Grayson Youngman

Didn’t GM get a massive bailout? Otherwise they’d be gone right? Hmmmm

Vor 3 Monate
Rafael Correia
Rafael Correia

If you think that, Tesla, is just a car company... You are dawn wrong...

Vor 3 Monate
NH Berrics
NH Berrics

Lol he’s short Tesla because musk doesn’t execute. Model 3 is out selling ICE cars in same class like Mercedes bmw Audi... God forbid they spend money and invest it into the production YOU GUYS SHORT THEM ON. You bitch they spend money and bitch they aren’t producing fast enough (which they literally have increased production year by year as a new auto maker). And last... your face looks like pure diabetes lol

Vor 3 Monate
J Priest
J Priest

Tesla success side effect: saving the planet so you can play with your money games. I'd like the weather to change back.

Vor 3 Monate
kjkurien
kjkurien

"Nowhere in autonomous driving as far as I can tell"...my Tesla is not fully autonomous. However, the current autonomous driving functions is a world above any other competitor. Working very well in the production. Waymo and Google are still in R&D.

Vor 3 Monate
Andre P
Andre P

If Tesla sells as many cars as GM does... it won’t just be a car company. It will be an energy supply company; it will generate, distribute and supply energy. So effectively an oil company and gas station. Let alone autonomous driving.

Vor 3 Monate
T. Thomas
T. Thomas

Where are GM's autonomous cars ?

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

They have been tested in San Francisco. Search "Cruise Automation" on YouTube.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

Tesla/Panasonic don't really have an advantage, because they still need 5-6 giga factories to just become a small car manufacturer. It will take years and by that time the other battery manufacturers (CATL, BYD, LG Chem etc.) will have build up some factories as well to produce enough for Tesla's competition. Right now they are selling 240k (?) cars a year, which is nothing, since the annual production of vehicles last year alone was 97 millions (that's a 0,2% market share for Tesla, which gets even smaller over the years, since in about 3 years it would be 720k cars vs 290 million vehicles). Thinking that Tesla will someday be as much worth as Amazon or Apple, is just blind hype and completely out of realism.

Vor 3 Monate
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich Hayek

retard

Vor Monat
KrKyoutube
KrKyoutube

Scam. Do not listen if you do not want to loose money.

Vor 3 Monate
zoiks 66
zoiks 66

Instructions unclear. Sold my Chevy and bought a Tesla.

Vor 3 Monate
Andre P
Andre P

You can tell from his body language that he doesn't believe what he is saying. He knows he is in trouble!

Vor 3 Monate
rouroni kenshin
rouroni kenshin

why is this managing director lying in front of camera telling people who is good at autonomous driving

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

He's not lying. GM has done press-supervised full-autonomy tests in San Francisco. They're not as far along as Google, but they're a solid bet in that market.

Vor 3 Monate
Abilash S
Abilash S

People who have no idea of what autonomous driving talk about autonomous driving! LOL. GM is a factory. No Tech. Tesla is a tech company. They would lead autonomous driving, not GM!!

Vor 3 Monate
Abilash S
Abilash S

I would have believed you if GM would have ever fixed their car via an OTA updates. Sorry, no silicon Valley techie would ever join GM and build such wonderful software. On the other hand, people are ready to join Tesla and build such awesome platforms (not cars)

Vor 3 Monate
Al Gniazdowski
Al Gniazdowski

ohh so gm dosent have a tech center? or they cant invest in companies with autonomous tech, 3rd party buddy. get your facts right before you comment, i live about 9 miles from gm tech center they have 710 acres and +20,000 plus employees. Let me tell you they are very hush hush on their stuff unlike musk whos on twitter always blabbing

Vor 3 Monate
shepherdsknoll8
shepherdsknoll8

I loved the “Big Short” , having worked in the lending business for 35 years, it hit close to home. I find it hard to believe this is the same guy played by Steve Carlin in the movie, however. How is GM going to make money off their autonomous software ? By installing it in all the cars they sell ? It doesn’t make sense. I bought a Tesla Model 3 five months ago and paid extra for the Autopilot. I use it occasionally on the highway but personally I don’t think anybody’s system will be 100% until we have more bandwidth and a 5th generation cellular network. When we do there will be many usable autonomous systems. Tesla’s strength is not solely in its autonomy. It makes many products that are really great and many people recognize that. We just drove our Model 3 on a 3200 mile trip to Mt. Rushmore. The car performed flawlessly. We spent a total of $114 on electricity at Tesla Superchargers across the country. Some places we stayed provided charging for free. When I asked my wife what was her favorite part of the trip was, she replied , “the car and stopping along the way” ! It becomes a great way to travel, you can go 300-325 miles on a charge but you end up going 200 because you like stopping along the way to see America, eat local food and talk with other EV owners. I don’t think GM has a product or service like that unless they are keeping it a big secret. I hope GM does invest more in EVs and autonomy, people say both the Volt and Bolt are great cars. I personally believe we should all transition to sustainable energy, oil causes global strife, cancer and global warming. It is irresponsible to our children not to address these issues.

Vor 3 Monate
dlamardeyoutoube
dlamardeyoutoube

The theory is that if cars become autonomous car ownership become obsolete. GM and other first mover will rent by the miles their fleet of cars making good money. However i don't believe that car will be autonomous for the simple reason that the road network was not designed for machine in the first place. Most sensor on cars give you false reading in bad weather good luck to drive the actual car.

Vor 2 Monate
Al Gniazdowski
Al Gniazdowski

3rd party thats how, you can contract out the tech from other companies thats how it works now days.

Vor 3 Monate
Harry Aldieny
Harry Aldieny

nice try getting investors into betting on a subsidized ailing company

Vor 3 Monate
Tarzan
Tarzan

GM is still the same garbage as it was before its bankruptcy. It will fail again.

Vor 3 Monate
Liberty Hayek
Liberty Hayek

can we just eliminate new york as a golbal powerhouse as they dont invent or make anything anyways ?

Vor 3 Monate
NuclearNow_SolarLater
NuclearNow_SolarLater

Michael Lewis needs to update the Undoing Project/Big Short about how this guy's human bias and regression to the mean caused him to make the worst short position of life.

Vor 3 Monate
HPrieto
HPrieto

Wait, people actually believe GM’s self-driving technology is ahead of tesla??? LMAO😂😂😂 Probably the same people that voted for trump lmao

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

pedroSilesa Just wait until you file your taxes after the midterms, and realize what you can't deduct, anymore. "Wait a minute: I can't deduct that? Or that? But that's more than all my additional payroll earnings from last year!" Yup, that's what's going to happen to a lot of middle-class voters next spring, too late to change their midterms votes. That's what reasoned people will call a 'bait-and-switch". On the other hand, maybe you won't have that problem, but that means you got the brunt of the tax cuts (you're very wealthy), or you don't have kids.

Vor 3 Monate
pedroSilesia
pedroSilesia

You are stupid, what you had to edit in your short sentence? Go back to school. President Trump has earned me already shit a lot of money. US stocks uncomparable with any other global shit. How much would Clinton return to you? Pathetic +5% over a year?

Vor 3 Monate
shalvin prakash
shalvin prakash

Elon will leave Tesla and the shareholders high and dry

Vor 3 Monate
49fiori
49fiori

in 2028 Amazon will buy Apple. Come back to this comment in 10 years and you will see I was right.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

If Apple loses that much worth, why would Amazon buy it?

Vor 3 Monate
tribalypredisposed
tribalypredisposed

He must live in Bizarro Land. The company with a 30% margin, making 240,000 a year with 420,000 waiting to buy he shorts, the company with a 15% NEGATIVE margin making 25,000 a year with no one waiting he buys? It does not matter if GM is ahead in autonomous, they don't have the battery supply to make the EVs buyers want or to reach a profitable scale of production. Whether you believe in Tesla or not, it is clear that so far GM has not done what it will need to do to survive and appears not to understand the danger facing it.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

Michael Ball Yeah that‘s true, but the sales will still be millions anually. And many people would still like to have their own cars. Besides batteries are also needed since many people go for solar now.

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

Right now, cars are utilized about 5% of the time. Autonomous cars will be much more efficient, as they move from user to user, probably at least 15% utilization. So this means you'll need to manufacture far fewer cars to meet demand. This means less battery manufacturing crunch.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

240k a year isn't a lot either. The problem overall is, that it will take decades to produce enough batteries to turn the EV market into a mass market (right now the largest battery producer is CATL, followed by LG Chem, Panasonic and BYD). All of them still fail to produce enough batteries to supply the mass market. Tesla/Panasonic don't really any advantage, because they need to build up at least 5-6 giga factories to just reach the status of a small manufacturers. And by that time the others will have build up enough factories to supply the competition.

Vor 3 Monate
J Priest
J Priest

autonomous will be outlawed after the first perceived terrorist act. Somebody will send a car somewhere to do damage and from then on..driver in every car,truck, plane, and bus..... I'm short on AI.

Vor 3 Monate
J Priest
J Priest

Unlike you I am assuming that the hackers will do a complete job and think about covering their tracks or using a rabbit. It's gonna take more than Joe Kenda.

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

Cops will have an immediate knowledge of the suspect's identity from database logs of who ordered the car. It won't be a good way to commit anything untoward, unless you don't mind getting caught.

Vor 3 Monate
Cbeddoe19
Cbeddoe19

I just can't get that excited about GM. Most of their cars just aren't that great. GM's self driving tech is ULTRA expensive at 20k per system and they are putting on the bolt. The bolt is one of the lowest selling EVs in its class. GM will be loosing 10s of thousands on each one of these they sell until quantities pick up if they ever pick up. The car just stinks compared to the competition. I read they are going to sell it without a steering wheel or pedals which I think is a huge mistake. One accident and the press are going to turn on that worse than Tesla's "Autopilot". Tesla has been severely mismanaged over the last few years and hemorrhaging money. Musk getting more involved and cutting the fat will be good for Tesla. Their car sales are high enough to turn it around quickly. I don't like their business practices but the model S is outselling every car in its class gasoline or electric and they have a cult like following who have been waiting for the model 3 for years and they are finally getting production numbers up. Tesla also is an energy/Storage company in the future that diversification will help. I think the long term opportunity for growth is with Tesla even though their stock is overvalued (understatement) and it's a bigger risk. Musk will sink every once of his being and every dollar into Tesla to keep it moving forward. Long term investors know that and it inflates the price.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

So mostly California? Well it's surely helpful, but competition worldwide is much harder. I guess Tesla has a lot of hype in the US because it's a US company, but in Europe many people think that Musk is nothing more than a charlatan.

Vor 3 Monate
Cbeddoe19
Cbeddoe19

Headshotmonkey007, US markets. Model S followed by Mercedes S Class, Porsche Panamera, BMW 7 series...

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

In what region is Tesla S outselling the rest? On a worldwide basis the class is dominated by the germans.

Vor 3 Monate
Roberto Maldonado Böhm
Roberto Maldonado Böhm

I'll give it 2 days before he gets called a pedo.

Vor 3 Monate
Dear Mr. _-isaiah- deringer;_
Dear Mr. _-isaiah- deringer;_

I think it's wrong to pigeonhole Tesla like that.

Vor 3 Monate
Livefree Ordie
Livefree Ordie

The most stupid thing I have ever heard

Vor 3 Monate
Raymond
Raymond

Didn't this guy have to close his fund due to insider trading? People who think GM is ahead of Tesla in autonomy because they have a face camera are out of touch. Zero understanding of software.

Vor 3 Monate
Raymond
Raymond

Pretty much. Radar has a longer wavelength, it can go further, and it doesn't get absorbed by fog and snow like you said. Downside is you need much more sophisticated signal processing, and you will get lots of false positives. Radar compliments vision/lidar, it doesn't replace it. But with solved vision you don't need lidar, and lidar can never replace vision because it can't read signs. It's notable that Google recently showed how they used AI to filter out heavy snowfall from their lidar data.

Vor 3 Monate
C3zar79 Escamilla
C3zar79 Escamilla

Raymond if I'm not mistaking I read the difference between lidar and radar. Radar is a much better tech then lidar because it can not penetrate through fog unlike radar. Also lidar gives a much more clean picture at a higher cost but if an image is all you to detect then what purpose does it serve to get a clean expensive picture when radar would suffice at a cheaper price.

Vor 3 Monate
Raymond
Raymond

Yeah, you make good points. I'm drawing some reasoning and analogies from the cell phone business here, and the end result is anyone's guess. Two scenarios to consider: 1. autonomy is a pure taxi play that competes with uber, and/or 2. autonomy compliments existing vehicles and no one will buy a car that doesn't drive itself like no one wants to buy a phone that doesn't have internet and an App Store. In scenario 1, if GM can solve autonomy, there will be many winners and the whole thing becomes an undifferentiated commodity like taking an airplane. GM will have a manufacturing advantage, but since the # of taxis required is very small, Google can just buy like 10000 cars (pennies for them) and use that fleet. I am highly skeptical that GM will be able to get to full autonomy in the same decade as Google. I don't like to throw stones, but it's just a very hard problem. Even when Tesla announced FSD with AP2 suite I was calling BS (because timeline seemed impossible). I think Tesla will eventually get there because they're in SV and the progress I've seen from AP updates is amazing. In scenario 2, I assume Tesla has the best consumer product since they don't depend on lidar giving them the cost advantage. They're vertically integrated designing both hardware and software which is analogous to iPhone. The rest of the manufacturers will need to invent their own "OS" so to speak- this is not an easy problem, hence why all hardware manufacturers except Apple eventually adopted the next best OS. There are less network effects with autonomy, so it's conceivable that if manufacturers can pull it off, everyone has their own proprietary solution. I think it will be a combo of 1&2, and Tesla is in a good position due to not using lidar. Even if lidar becomes affordable in the future, I think it's highly unlikely we'll see lidar on consumer cars. They look ridiculous and are pointless when vision is solved. Personally, I suspect Google knows this too and they're only using lidar as a safety measure while vision isn't completely solved yet. But, I think Google is using neural nets to solve vision just like Tesla.

Vor 3 Monate
Michael Ball
Michael Ball

Raymond I find it interesting that you think Google will outsource the Waymo software, like they did with Android. Maybe they will, if they don't want to make investments into infrastructure. But a huge difference between Android and Waymo is that Android phones are sold at very tight margins. The profit margins with autonomous fleet owners, if done right, can be much larger, and that goes to the Google shareholders. I think they'd rather go that route, and buy cars from auto manufacturers at very cutthroat margins to the carmakers. But we'll see. I don't know how far along GM/Cruise are with computer simulation, but Google's very good at that. However, I do think both can win, because GM will be in the business of physically making the cars, and know-how therein. Google will be at a serious disadvantage in that regard. However, GM will have to be second or maybe third to market with a competent autonomous product. Like Apple and Android, the first two to the market will probably lock everyone else out. Survivability and profits will come from on-the-ground scale, and being able to pick up a prospective rider in very due order. That's another reason I think Google will keep Waymo software in-house: If they outsource it Android-style, they'll have five or six carmakers who will want to pick up riders with five or six different apps the user will need to download. Which Waymo carmaker do you choose? If none of them can guarantee the fastest pickup time over the other, or the options become too confusing, a more monolithic approach, like GM, can win.

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

That depends. The big manufacturers won't let a bad software like Tesla Autopilot through the quality tests.

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

1:14 "Lets have a little bit of history here....GM is actually a well run company....well, since it was bailed out < 10 yrs ago...." Wow this guy is making some powerful arguments!

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

Im addressing the new Goldman bear case, social media sentiment. lol. Wasn't my argument, it was the short cult's. In terms of a Musk being a distortion field...he built paypal, reinvented space flight and flipped the auto industry on it's head. All hype no substance....

Vor 3 Monate
YC
YC

Jim Jackson Bad quarterly earnings while burning through your cash reserves aint a joke. Why do you thjnk your musk wants to borrow more money? And your research is even worse, google trends and twitter? You just skimmed through twitter, didnt even pull any data but is based on your subjective feelings. Your google trends is up cause its on the news alot more, doesnt tell the percentage of positives vs negatives Musk has a reality distortion field. But in the end it just distorts reality, not change it. Dread it, run from it the destiny of tesla downfall still arrives.

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

So a tent and disrespect on the quarterly earnings call is your big bear thesis? Very good. Goldman was citing waning interest in model 3 via internet. Short thesis keeps getting weaker and weaker by the day. What's the implied volatility on your puts? I just looked up model 3 on google trends and it seems to be trending up (not down per Goldman) And in a quick twitter search of the phrase I see overwhelmingly positive comments?! : o http://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fg%2F11c3x48pb7&geo=US

Vor 3 Monate
YC
YC

Jim Jackson And you completely ignored his argument that precrisis it was terrible. And yet you dishonestly bring up the bailout. And bringing up the oil lobby and conspiracy theories? If thats the only argument you have here, you are just bending over yourself backwards for musk. How is tesla a well run company when its bleeding money, with no sign of solving its production problems. Empty promises, lots of question dodging. Even an idiot can burn through he amount of money tesla went through with little results to show for. Building cars in a tent? Musk is disrespecting the people that put money into his venture. He should put down his twitter handle and just start focusing on one company.

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

Was his argument not that GM is actually a well run company? Did they need to get bailed out < 10 yrs ago? Is < 10 yrs an impressive track record of success for such an old company? Was that said 10 yrs even successful for GM? Is this guy's short being funded by the incumbents & oil lobby to be an anti-Tesla sock puppet? Don't be a sheep.

Vor 3 Monate
Sean Z
Sean Z

Next year. Next year. Big competition next year. Same shit, different day. Meanwhile Tesla will prevail.

Vor 3 Monate
Billy Smith
Billy Smith

JellyFix agreed, Tesla is going to surprise a lot of people. I still wonder how GM and ford will deal with the electric switch over. I mean it’s hard to take a company that has invested billions into making gas engines, transmissions and differentials and say.. ehh, we’re done with that we’re going to make electric vehicles now. That kind of a switch is going to cost some serious cash. And lots of time.

Vor 20 Tage
JellyFix
JellyFix

+Billy Smith I think robert trolling or he has maybe some life challenges. Just leave him be. Let Tesla surprise him later.

Vor 23 Tage
Rs123
Rs123

Lucid got the backing of Saudi. Now it’s time for tesla to face tesla 2.0

Vor 2 Monate
Billy Smith
Billy Smith

Robert Blackford 🤦‍♂️never mind man.

Vor 3 Monate
Robert Blackford
Robert Blackford

And Tesla lost $2 billion last year. Read. Educate yourself.

Vor 3 Monate
Citizen
Citizen

I hope Tesla repeats the success of Amazon. There were lots of pundits who had doubts about Amazon.

Vor 3 Monate
Robert Blackford
Robert Blackford

Hey dummy. Compare Amazon's P/E ratio to Tesla's! Lol...can't stop laughing at your stupidity!

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

ffs. Amazon is mostly a software company. Stop with that stupid comparison...building a car company is way more expensive, not only in the growing, but also in the development and manufacturing part. Tesla will need at least 5-6 giga factories just to be a small manufacturer.

Vor 3 Monate
Poj Dia Vaj
Poj Dia Vaj

Gm has been around forever and they delivery a uncomfortableness bolt ev

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

I didn't realize all these wall street guys are certified experts on autonomous driving neural networking design. Hats off

Vor 3 Monate
jazeboy69
jazeboy69

careful the non-sarcasm-detector-ppl will be here asking silly questions lol

Vor 2 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

touché

Vor 3 Monate
Elon Musk
Elon Musk

Jim Jackson I didn’t realized there was an autonomous driving neural networking certification! Unless you mean a PHD!

Vor 3 Monate
Mark J
Mark J

I agree with you on the investment strategy. And given the way people are here it seems that the religion can go in both directions. Be well.

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

Hey man these comments are dead serious. I'm tired from typing on this thread the past few days but some comments I made below go into detail about why I don't think the incumbents will be able to compete. I'm not going to be a jerk to the shorts today, but I wouldn't double down on the puts or go long legacy autos at this point, but that's just my opinion. Best of luck

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

1:03 TFW Tesla shorts / GM longs realize these "Tesla killers" are 8 years behind what Tesla has done with their EV infrastructure. Not to mention competitors will have to do the following to compete: - Scrap their existing assembly lines (worth billions and soon obsolete - w/ long useful lives baked into their PP&E) - Build the largest battery production facility (will get into bidding wars w/ other auto manufactures to buy 3rd party batteries) - Build a massive supercharging network (w/ no in house solar or battery capabilities) - Pay out the ass for broadband services / satellite launches (likely to SpaceX) - Abandon their dealership distribution model - Flood their new fleet with self driving hardware long enough before legislation is passed Tesla is laying the foundations for the real opportunity. A monopoly on the storage and distribution of electrons, along with replacing Uber. That's excluding other massive opportunities like all the data value collected, replacing Uber/Lyft, a land grab on their supercharging network, trucking, tunnel building contracts, at home solar and industrial energy services. The old guard on wall street are about to get smoked. There's so much money sloshing around the capital markets Tesla will find good debt. These same types are long stuff like Facebook that nobody but fake robots use and just lost $124 billion in 10 minutes. I feel like I'm in the Truman show watching this non-stop negativity on Tesla.

Vor 3 Monate
wozzers2
wozzers2

tribalypredisposed lol your underlying assumption is that people or consumers as a whole want an ev car maybe they will still want their ice.

Vor 3 Monate
Faruk Carushi
Faruk Carushi

Jim Jackson .... thank you, brilliant!!! I wish I could articulate like that. You just summed up all my thoughts and put it out there..... excellent

Vor 3 Monate
Jim Jackson
Jim Jackson

You are fake news and incorrect: http://insideevs.com/global-plug-in-electric-car-sales-increased-to-over-140000-in-march/

Vor 3 Monate
Headshotmonkey007
Headshotmonkey007

Jim: How can Tesla be number one, when BYD is the world's largest EV sellers. Besides BYD also already sells e-trucks, e-rails and e-buses.

Vor 3 Monate
francescop1
francescop1

I enjoyed this thread👍

Vor 3 Monate
ⵉⵜⵔⵓⵏⴰⵓⵜ
ⵉⵜⵔⵓⵏⴰⵓⵜ

Incoming crybaby Teslemmings in 3.. 2.. 1..

Vor 3 Monate
1wdvg fgryb
1wdvg fgryb

Coraga 1 uk needs a fucking tesla gigapack. 3am and been listening to fuckin alarms go off for the last fuckin hour.

Vor 3 Monate
Coraga 1
Coraga 1

Incoming loser Tesla Haters wait that is you ⵔⵓⴽⴰⵜⴽⴰⵜ

Vor 3 Monate
1wdvg fgryb
1wdvg fgryb

ⵔⵓⴽⴰⵜⴽⴰⵜ and also what are your counter measures ??? I need answers bro

Vor 3 Monate
1wdvg fgryb
1wdvg fgryb

ⵔⵓⴽⴰⵜⴽⴰⵜ you want to hear some jokes? Why does NASA buy Sprite?? Cus they couldnt get 7up What does NASA stand for? Need another seven astronaughts

Vor 3 Monate
1wdvg fgryb
1wdvg fgryb

ⵔⵓⴽⴰⵜⴽⴰⵜ Are you a tesla fan??? Cus you got NASA badge and probs love spacex

Vor 3 Monate
Tenzin
Tenzin

I watched the movie Big Short, very nice movie. Wasn't he the slow one and only decided to short after consulting strippers, I guess things don't change

Vor 3 Monate
Faruk Carushi
Faruk Carushi

Tenzin hahahaha!!!

Vor 3 Monate
Adam C
Adam C

You must have been taking PCP while watching that movie.

Vor 3 Monate
Rahul A
Rahul A

😂🤦‍♂️

Vor 3 Monate
Rahul A
Rahul A

Dump anti American fag

Vor 3 Monate
Adam C
Adam C

Tesla is the best short since Valeant.

Vor 3 Monate
Light And Shadow
Light And Shadow

How is that perfect short looking now?

Vor 3 Monate
BuellersBack
BuellersBack

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Vor 3 Monate
Concerned Voter
Concerned Voter

Limp Wibbler I am a long term investor in Tesla. I originally bought at 187......sold some at 375 but still hold plenty. What I said was if the price dropped to 250 I would start to buy many more shares as I believe Tesla is a long term success story. I have never shorted ant stock, I look for winners and buy.

Vor 3 Monate
Jonathan Root
Jonathan Root

Cherry picking the data to back your short thesis backfired epically eh?

Vor 3 Monate
Concerned Voter
Concerned Voter

Adam C what was it you said. Projected to have only $1 billion left.......so it was $2.2 billion, I worked on the figure of $2 billion so was a little pleased, you my friend must be as sick as a parrot to be so utterly wrong. You seem to have gone a little quiet with your 324 now at 349. that must be painful for the old ego eh ? How could you be so wrong ? Clueless. As the sage always says.....rule number one...never lose money....rule number two , never forget rule number one.. time you looked at an alternative investment strategy. Bet on the horses ?,dogs ? Donkeys ? I hear number 4 in the blue jacket isa guaranteed winner

Vor 3 Monate
KNO
KNO

Btw full on recession is coming 2024. Tesla's solar powered supercharger network is gonna decimate everything on it's way.

Vor 3 Monate
Robert Blackford
Robert Blackford

Except you're 100% WRONG.

Vor 3 Monate
anyau92
anyau92

@KNO Do you CB will force the transition to digital fiat(cash) killing off physical cash after this recession?

Vor 3 Monate
KNO
KNO

Alex Pana with the rise of EVs you'll see how malleable gasoline demand gets. The thing is electricity prices will also get very unstable. Tesla on the other hand can guarantee lower prices for basically eternity.

Vor 3 Monate
Alex Pana
Alex Pana

recession will bring cheap oil and gas prices which will destroy Tesla market. Not to mention people will have less money to buy expensive cars.

Vor 3 Monate
KNO
KNO

RIP his money.

Vor 3 Monate
Rick Lokers
Rick Lokers

Shorts getting absolutely murdered as we speak.

Vor 3 Monate

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